The NFL's 2026 season is just around the corner, and with it comes the annual exercise of predicting win totals for each team. This year, the focus is on identifying which teams are on an upward trajectory and which are likely to fall short of expectations. Let's dive into the analysis and make some bold predictions, keeping in mind that the NFL is a league of parity and anything can happen on any given Sunday.
The Rising Stars
Arizona Cardinals (Under 4.5)
Personally, I think the Cardinals have more talent than most realize. The offense could be set up for long-term success under Mike LaFleur, and if they can find a franchise quarterback, they could become everyone's favorite upstart team. However, it's going to be tough sledding until then. The competition between Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, and third-round rookie Carson Beck isn't ideal, especially with the NFL's toughest schedule on deck. I predict an underperformance until they find their QB.
Ravens (Over 10.5)
The Ravens have all the ingredients to be a top contender. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry leading the way, Baltimore should have one of the league's best offenses. The addition of Jesse Minter as head coach and Trey Hendrickson to boost the pass rush could make the defense every bit as good. I'm bullish on the Ravens' chances of repeating as AFC champions.
Bills (Over 7.5)
The Bills have made some smart moves this offseason, including adding DJ Moore to upgrade the receiving corps and promoting Joe Brady as Sean McDermott's successor. With Brady calling the shots, who's to say he won't open up the playbook to maximize Josh Allen? I'm optimistic about the Bills' chances of reaching the playoffs.
The Mid-Pack Contenders
Panthers (Over 9.5)
The Panthers are slowly trending in the right direction. The offensive line received some important reinforcements, and rookie Chris Brazzell III brings a much-needed field-stretcher on the outside. On defense, Ejiro Evero's unit could take a step forward after adding Devin Lloyd and Jaelan Phillips to the front seven. I predict an improvement on last year's eight-win output.
Bears (Over 9.5)
Even if the Bears fail to live up to the hype following a strong first season under Ben Johnson, this number feels extremely gettable for them. With more time in the system, I think Caleb Williams and the rest of this offense are in for another significant jump. I'm optimistic about the Bears' chances of reaching the playoffs.
Bengals (Over 5.5)
Some horrifically bad defense made it impossible to take this team seriously over the last few seasons, but those issues could be a thing of the past. The additions of Dexter Lawrence and Boye Mafe up front should push Cincinnati's defense into league-average territory. With Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, the Bengals have the firepower to win games.
The Dark Horses
Cowboys (Over 9.5)
After overhauling the defense, the Cowboys have a chance to start trending toward the middle of the pack. With one of the few offenses that can match Cincinnati's firepower, I think any such progression could be enough to make this number look extremely low in hindsight. I predict the Cowboys will challenge the Eagles for the NFC East title.
Lions (Over 10.5)
Detroit seems poised for a major rebound after a frustrating 2025 campaign. The Lions' impressive core should benefit from the NFL's easiest strength of schedule, and I predict they'll cruise back into the playoffs.
Texans (Over 8.5)
I have the Texans on par with the Ravens as the top teams in the AFC. Houston's defense might be the only unit in football that can rival what we saw on Seattle's run to the Super Bowl last season. I'm bullish on the Texans' chances of reaching the playoffs.
The Struggling Teams
Colts (Under 9.5)
The Colts could struggle this year, especially with the challenge of an increasingly competitive division. I predict a regression after last year's surprising 13-win showing.
Jaguars (Over 10.5)
The Jaguars are for real, and I predict they'll build on last year's progress. Liam Coen's arrival helped Trevor Lawrence put it all together, and the QB has the weapons to build on that progress in 2026. I'm optimistic about the Jaguars' chances of reaching the playoffs.
Chiefs (Under 10.5)
The Chiefs are a tough one to predict. While they have the talent to bounce back after a 6-11 outlier, the version of Patrick Mahomes that this squad gets after his ACL injury is uncertain. I predict a slight regression.
The Rebuilding Teams
Raiders (Under 9.5)
The Raiders had a productive offseason, but it'll likely take some time for the progress to translate into results. Picking out wins on their gauntlet of a schedule isn't an easy task. I predict a slow start to the season.
Chargers (Over 11.5)
I'm unbelievably bullish on the idea of a creative McDaniel offense finally unlocking Justin Herbert's potential. The Chargers have addressed their one glaring weakness at corner and have the talent to reach the playoffs.
Dolphins (Under 8.5)
The Dolphins are my front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick. The new regime may well build a contender in time, but this seems like a situation that'll likely get a whole lot worse before it gets better. I predict a slow start to the season.
The Underdogs
Vikings (Over 9.5)
Minnesota won nine games despite some truly horrific quarterback play last year. I imagine this line is heavily influenced by public perception about Kyler Murray, but his presence should help the Vikings' talented offense bounce back. I predict a surprise playoff run.
Patriots (Over 7.5)
Drake Maye was one of the best quarterbacks on the planet in his first full season as a starter. With A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs providing a major upgrade to his receiver room, Maye might take his game to another level. I predict the Patriots will reach the playoffs.
Saints (Under 7.5)
The Saints are building under Kellen Moore, and I predict they'll take a step forward in Year 2. However, faced with the NFL's second-hardest schedule, this ascending team might still be another year away from playoff contention.
The Question Marks
Giants (Under 7.5)
John Harbaugh's arrival in New York could quickly prove that he was the driving force behind the Ravens' 12 playoff appearances in 18 seasons. However, I'm cautious about the short-term outlook of Jaxson Dart's development. I predict a slow start to the season.
Jets (Under 10.5)
The Jets did a nice job upgrading their talent level, but New York had a long way to go after last year's 3-14 record. I predict a slow start to the season, with meaningful progress being delayed another year.
Eagles (Under 7.5)
Change was needed after last year's issues, but does a shift to a Kyle Shanahan-style system under first-time OC Sean Mannion really fit with Jalen Hurts? I'm cautious about the Eagles' chances of reaching the playoffs.
The Bottom Feeders
Steelers (Under 10.5)
Pittsburgh has long resisted a rebuild, and the Mike McCarthy hire signals a clear belief within that organization that this team is still in a position to compete. However, I predict a temporary setback before they get out of purgatory.
49ers (Over 10.5)
The 49ers suffered a rash of injuries last season and still rattled off 12 wins. I predict a rebound after adding Osa Odighizuwa and Dre Greenlaw to the defense. The offense will be among the best in the business.
Bucs (Over 6.5)
Even with Mike Evans' departure, a healthy offensive line should go a long way toward getting Baker Mayfield and the rest of the offense back on track. I predict the Bucs will reach the playoffs.
The Bottom Line
This year's NFL season promises to be an exciting one, with plenty of teams looking to make a run at the playoffs. While I've made some bold predictions, the NFL is a league of parity, and anything can happen on any given Sunday. So, buckle up and enjoy the ride as we witness the 2026 NFL season unfold.
