In the world of NFL predictions, it's always intriguing to delve into the realm of dark horse candidates for the MVP award. As we approach the 2026 season, I'm here to offer my take on some of the unexpected contenders who could surprise us all. Personally, I think it's important to remember that these predictions are a fun exercise in speculation, and while they may not always pan out, they add an extra layer of excitement to the upcoming season.
One thing that immediately stands out is the dominance of quarterbacks in the MVP race. With 18 out of the last 20 awards going to QBs, it's clear that this position is where we should focus our attention. However, I want to challenge the conventional wisdom and explore some of the less obvious choices.
Let's start with Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles. Despite a disappointing second half of the 2025 season, Hurts has the potential to roar back and reclaim his MVP form from 2022. With a new offensive coordinator and a revamped receiving corps, including the dynamic Hollywood Brown, Hurts could be in for a redemption story. The key will be his ability to improve his performance under center and lead a contending Eagles team.
Moving on to Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars, he finished fifth in the MVP voting last season, but the oddsmakers seem to have forgotten about him. I believe Lawrence has the tools to surprise everyone and climb up the rankings. With a second year in Liam Coen's system, Lawrence could showcase an even better version of himself, especially if some of his skill-position teammates step up.
Now, let's talk about the intriguing case of Baker Mayfield, the former MVP candidate with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Mayfield's season was plagued by injuries, but he showed glimpses of brilliance. If he can stay healthy and work his magic with a young receiving corps, the MVP chatter could return. The NFC South is still a winnable division, and Mayfield's experience and talent could be a winning combination.
In Minnesota, we have Kyler Murray, a player with immense talent but a recent slump in Arizona. Under the guidance of QB guru Kevin O'Connell, Murray could experience a career resurgence. With a strong supporting cast, including Justin Jefferson, Murray has the potential to make defenses look foolish once again. If he can tap into his dual-threat abilities, the Vikings could become surprise contenders.
Turning our attention to the Washington Commanders, Carson Daniels is an electric playmaker with a lot to prove after an injury-plagued 2025. With a new offensive coordinator and a less splashy offseason, Daniels will have to step up and carry the team. If the Commanders are in playoff contention come December, it will be a testament to Daniels' exceptional play.
Over in Detroit, Jared Goff is a consistent producer, ranking among the top five in EPA for four consecutive seasons. Despite playing in a tough division, Goff has the weaponry and the ability to put up big numbers. With a manageable schedule, the Lions could bounce back, and Goff might just find himself in the MVP conversation.
Finally, let's not forget about the running back position. While it's rare for a non-QB to win the MVP, Todd Gurley of the Atlanta Falcons could be an exception. With historic production and a successful Falcons season, Gurley could become a leading contender. It's a long shot, but in the spirit of dark horse predictions, it's worth considering.
In conclusion, these dark horse candidates offer an exciting glimpse into the potential surprises of the 2026 NFL season. While the odds may be stacked against them, these players have the talent and the opportunity to challenge the status quo. As an analyst, I find it fascinating to explore these scenarios and imagine the impact they could have on the league. So, let's sit back, enjoy the ride, and see if any of these dark horses gallop their way to MVP glory.
